Material world: forecasting household appliance ownership in a growing global economy
This paper presents a methodology for modeling residential appliance uptake as a function of macroeconomic variables, and presents forecasts of appliance diffusion through 2030 for several scenarios of economic (GDP) growth. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time.