Quantifying the potential impacts of China's power-sector policies on coal input and CO2 emissions through 2050: A bottom-up perspective

This study evaluates four recent policies for China's power sector—mandatory renewable targets, green dispatch, carbon capture and sequestration development, and coal-fired generation efficiency improvements—and quantifies their energy and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction potential through 2050 using bottom-up energy modeling and scenario analysis. We find renewable targets and green dispatch have crucial interlinked impacts on energy and CO₂ emissions that could change the shape and peak year of China's power-sector emissions outlook. Without either renewable targets or green dispatch, coal will likely continue dominating China's power mix and could delay the power-sector CO₂ emissions peak to the late 2030s.